What is Your Move?


If you has been following our market trend lately, you would notice that our stock market was plummeting down. With just several days, our Composite Index has come down to 1191.55 point from almost touching 1400 point. And with it, almost all of mutual fund were losing value too.

Here we come again to the point of making decision. Are you going to cut loss and retreat from stock market/sell your mutual funds? Or you just take it as one of the dismissible volatility and stick to you buy and hold strategy? Whatever you choice , just don’t panic.

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Here is 17th August chart for Ittikal fund. As you can see, the value is having a rollercoaster drop. Other funds are having the same kind of drop too.

My next move is to hold the fund. I’m expecting these mutual funds to have the same kind of recovery like the middle section of the graph. Whether that will occur or not, I’m not really care. Currently, I’m waiting for the price to hit the bottom and start to come up. When that happens, I’m going to buy more fund. I’m thinking to buy PIOF as the fund constantly outperform it’s indices.

What’s more, I think that last Friday’s price is the bottom for our market. US stock market also have shown improvement as Fed has cut the interest rate to reduce volatility of its stock market. I’m being a little bit speculative right now but it’s alright I guess.

What do you think about my move? And what have you done or will do after this? Would love to hear from fellow readers.

  1. #1 by Irwan on August 18, 2007 - 2:06 am

    I’ve found an article from market experts. You might want to read it.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070817/bs_nm/economy_credit_wealth_dc_1;_ylt=AjHWMriGQvsC6o4Ej7AoGUqb.HQA

  2. #2 by kkchow23 on August 18, 2007 - 5:09 pm

    I’m sure most have notice that this is not the 1st major fall of the year, since Feb-Mar there’s also a sharp drop due to China’s stock market from 1300points to 1100points. Along the way, there’s also few minor corrections. This usually happens due to either due to internal or external factors.

    In Malaysia, it’s mostly affected due to US subprime mortgage market as it causes investors worldwide to panic.

    However, fundamentally the economy and market in Malaysia is stable and on the right track. Therefore, it’s just a matter of time till it goes back to the place it should be.

    Just like Irwan’s phrase of “rollercoaster”. We’ll just have to ride thru it, I’m sure it’ll be a fun ride towards the end. Sit tight and enjoy the ride.

    I’ve actually even top up some of my funds since the price is lower. Even encourage most of my clients to do so if having extra cash.

    Always remember what’s our goal in investing and I’m sure by end of the day, you’ll benefit from it.

  3. #3 by Irwan on August 18, 2007 - 5:39 pm

    thanks for your view Mr Chow, it’s kinda reassuring. Just want to ask something. I want to topup my investment too. Can I do that without being here. I’m going to the US next week, so I’m thinking of buying some new funds. I don’t know whether I can buy fund if I’m not here. If I remember correctly, the last time I bought funds, I have to sign several papers.

  4. #4 by kkchow23 on August 18, 2007 - 7:41 pm

    It’s actually a very important task for agent to reassure investors about the current situation and updates them from time to time just in case anything, giving suggestions whenever needed. Shouldn’t hide or ignore when the market is downtrend and reappears when market uptrend.

    Irwan,

    If you want to top up your investment in a particular fund that you’ve already an account, you just need to go to any Public Bank branches available and request for an “Additional Investment” (Pelaburan Tambahan) form. Fill in your particulars with your account no. and submit it with your cash/cheque. However in your case, since you won’t be around Malaysia, you can ask your parents to do so or your servicing agent.

    As for any new funds which you haven’t open an account, all you have to do is to fill in the “Investment Application Form” (available at any Public Mutual branches/ servicing agent) and submit it to Public Bank/ Public Mutual/ servicing agent whenever you wishes to invest in that particular fund.

  5. #5 by Md on August 18, 2007 - 11:23 pm

    I wonder why people panic sell their stocks.hmm…

  6. #6 by shahibbul on August 19, 2007 - 11:02 am

    Well, for me, it’s time to buy more! All the fund prices is too high lately, and if things goes down further more, it’s good news to me, : )

  7. #7 by kkchow23 on August 19, 2007 - 11:32 am

    Basically, many people claimed to be long-term investors. However, some might panic when markets fall, selling their investments and fleeing to bank accounts/money market & bond funds, and who are flush with greed whenever the markets rise, racing to buy the very assets they previously sold, are market timers.

    This is basically common due to human reactions. When people doesn’t know or understand, they tend to have fear and panic causing them to lose their focus.

    Try read this article : http://financial-freedom-unit-trust.blogspot.com/2007/07/are-you-trying-to-time-this-market.html

  8. #8 by nizamzainal on August 20, 2007 - 5:07 pm

    Irwan ,

    If u’re asking my advice on this, it would be better to sell off all your stocks till the market bottom up flat (negative) before you start buying the whole chunk again.

    Its just tru my experience back to 1988-89,1997-98 crisis. The pushing factor would be different but the effect is almost the same, ie the market crash. 88-89, because of the commodities, the 97-98, currency..If you see and look carefully its the fundamental market of 10 years cycle.. grow, sustain and burst.

    Anyway this is just my personal advice as part time stock broker ‘kampungan’ !

  9. #9 by deanz on August 20, 2007 - 7:40 pm

    “kampung” style also works sometime u know 😀 btw since i just start with this mutual fund, therefore i just miss my selling moment for 2007. according to your time concept, i have to wait another 10 years which is in 2017??? before i can start purchasing?? hhahahshs just joking

  10. #10 by kkchow23 on August 20, 2007 - 11:42 pm

    Different people have different views. Going out of the market is actually not a bad thing to do provided you’ve profit from it. But you’ll have to know when to come back in at the right time.

    Many people know bout the concept of buying low and selling high. But sometimes people sell it off when market downtrend and ends up chasing after it when it goes uptrend causing them to buy at a higher price.

    Dollor-Cost-Averaging actually helps reduce the gap of difference. That’s why regular investment is very much encourage.

    Hopefully my opinion doesn’t offend anyone 🙂

  11. #11 by nizamzainal on August 21, 2007 - 11:06 am

    deanz,
    the concept as per kkchow mentioned..buy low, sell high..and to my knowledge text book wont help u on this..because hearsay and the fundamental (word of mouth) is much more powerfull hence pushing the market up or down to the drain. You can track the trend few years back.U should start digging info which anything to do with the “American policy to the world” since we’ve been putting our neck against the offset print USD!

    So coming back to your question, my prediction year 2007 tru 2nd quarter 2008 is the selling year because the market will start to melt until some of the companies reach PN4. The 3rd and forth q 2008 would be best to buy all stocks, because its cheap especially those bluechip.

    Year 2009 market start picking up again as i mentioned earlier till its melt 2018.

    This is just my personal opinion based on what i’m going tru the previous 88 and 98 crash.

  12. #12 by Md on August 21, 2007 - 2:11 pm

    I certainly am not experienced as nizamzainal. Just arrived at the scene. But i can say stock market is driven by speculation. I was surprised that US stock market is also not efficient and still very much affected by speculation.

  13. #13 by nizamzainal on August 21, 2007 - 4:52 pm

    normal la bro md., last time when US want to make more money they declare war on iraq (out of nothing) ..sigh!! then the market started to wobble..everybody scared of many thing..so hearsay and speculation aroused!!!

  14. #14 by kkchow23 on August 21, 2007 - 11:32 pm

    Previously, 90’s I would say yes that global market act similarly based on US… but since then, the market has shifted due to mainly oversea investments and hedge funds spreading around. Asia plays a very important role compare to previously.

    Take for example, “Asian Financial Crisis” (1997) was triggered in Thailand with the collapse of Thai Bhat. Global market was severely hit.

    The recent would be “The Chinese Correction” (Feb 27,2007), which caused Dow Jones one of the biggest one-day slide of 416 points. The 7th largest drop in history.

    According to analyst, the market in Asia has never been better.

    I don’t think we should speculate on how it’ll turn out to be. But by practicing regular investment, no matter what the market outcome, I’m confident that in the end it’ll be rewarding. By doing so, you’ll get more units when market low and less units when market high.

  15. #15 by Md on August 22, 2007 - 2:46 am

    good tips kkchow 🙂

  16. #16 by hakim on August 30, 2007 - 5:25 pm

    I think at the moment, whether to sell or to buy is up to a person financial status. It is whether he or she can continue to take risk and sustain future volatility and maybe plunge in the market before it jumps back again or not.

    However, seeing todays charts together with 15 years of investing experience,i would wait for the big plunge before buying as i have already sold my investment once the plunge started..n i Might b wrong and loose d glorious moment but that is this all about, opportunity!

    Certainly, to sell your chips, you should calculate the risk and of course let loose before you are broke and left with pennies in your pockets.

    From my experience, i ask all of us to do this, Calculate again and again although you have a consultant and adviser. Be patient and take time to think!

    To buy or to sell, again, is up to you. Im gonna wait till the price go down a little or more. If my prediction is wrong, then ill have to buy during the up pace la.. huhu!

    Good luck guys!

  17. #17 by Selau642 on May 19, 2008 - 12:41 pm

    Hi, Irwan.I like to point out a few points about Public Mutual.No offence to kkchow23.

    According to your chart in this post:
    Total return of Public Ittikal = 30.12%
    Total return of Kuala Lumpur Syariah Index(KLSI) = 31.20%

    This shows that the growth in the Public Ittikal Fund is actualy less then the KLSI for this period. Besides that,if the management service charges of the initial purchases is not yet taken into account,then the Public Ittikal Fund is actually performing worst then 30.12%.

    According to the trackrecord of Public Ittikal Fund, the Public Ittikal Fund actually performed not much better then the benchmark KLSI. It might mean that this fund is not giving you the best return(look at the chart and notice that the red and blue lines are very near in vertical distance).The fund is not outperforming the market very well.

    You should buy the KLSI instead since Public Ittikal is not doing better that KLSI.If you compare Public Ittikal fund with the Public Aggresive Growth fund chart, you will notice that Public Aggresive Growth fund actually out performs the benchmark more frequently(this is deduced by the longer vertical distance between the red and blue lines).

    Not all Public Mutual Funds are performing well.If you check the Public Ittikal fund today(16 May 08), you will notice that it does not out perform the benchmark very much.I hope I provide a new perspective to your investing ideas.

    Selau642

  18. #18 by nisa on June 30, 2009 - 3:42 pm

    hai…
    i want to know about pcif. how much the higher price for that fund??

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